Sunday, October 2, 2016

Classic tv and the commercials that entertained generations

The 1950s were arguably the golden age of television and many people of a certain age look back fondly at some of the shows of the time – “The Lone Ranger”, “I Love Lucy” and “Gunsmoke”. These shows were in black and white and were watched on a set that got its signal from a huge antenna on the roof, but they were loved just the same. Almost as compelling as the TV shows themselves, were some of the commercials of the time. TV was still a novelty during the 1950s and companies were anxious to cash in on the new craze. Particularly popular were commercials for cigarettes, cars and state of the art kitchen appliances. And the average length of TV advertisements was around a minute – compared to the 30 seconds or less today. Beer was also one of the products widely advertised on TV during the 1950s. At first, it was only late at night and never on a Sunday, so as not to offend anyone. During the early part of the decade, Blatz Beer became one of the beer industry’s biggest advertisers, partly due to the company’s sponsorship of the popular “Amos ‘n’ Andy” show. One of the most instantly recognizable characters in television advertising at the time was Mabel. Mabel was a chirpy blond waitress who appeared on screen with a tray of Carling Black Label beer. Almost every Carling commercial featured the phrase that became famous – “Hey, Mabel, Black Label!” Cigarette advertisements were commonplace during the 1950s – a big change from television today. Some of the biggest tobacco manufacturers of the time spent a lot of money trying to convince us that smoking was sophisticated and fun, including Lucky Strike, Tareyton and Winston. One famous Lucky Strike ad featured a clever combination of cartoon and live action, featuring the singer Gisele McKenzie. Tareytown had an ad that featured what appeared to be two children dancing around a giant pack of cigarettes. And who can possibly forget the Fontane Sisters singing the praises of Chesterfield cigarettes? Car manufacturers went to great lengths to advertise the latest models on television during the 1950s despite the loss of aesthetic effect on a black and white screen. The Ford Edsel was advertised at great length as the most beautiful convertible in the world, complete with such wonderful and innovative features as “teletouch” driving and air suspension. It wasn’t all just cars, beer and tobacco. Some healthier products were advertised as well. One of the most well known ads of the era was for Pepsodent toothpaste. The TV ad featured a cute cartoon couple kissing after having brushed their teeth, and the catchy and unforgettable slogan – “You’ll wonder where the yellow went, when you brush your teeth with Pepsodent!” TV advertisements for kitchen appliances pointed out features that we now take for granted. A General Electric ad from the time for a new refrigerator consisted of a proud couple explaining the features of their sleek new fridge which included shelves that slid out, storage space behind the door and a separate freezer compartment. And some things don’t seem to have changed much over the years. Tupperware ran a series of TV ads during the 1950s which featured an exciting Tupperware evening at a typical suburban home, organized by a “hostess”. Almost as much emphasis was placed on the social aspect, as on the actual features of the product. One of the most prolific TV advertisers during the 1950s and subsequent decades was Pepsi. Their advertisements captured the feeling of the times like few others. One of the company’s earliest featured the actress and singer Polly Bergen enjoying a barn dance and a refreshing glass of Pepsi-Cola. Not to be outdone, Coca-Cola was just as prolific with their ads and came up with several memorable slogans, such as “There’s nothing like a Coke”. Coca-Cola also went after the young crowd, with an ad featuring people at diners and drive-in movie theaters and a jingle that claimed “Zing! What a feeling!” Many television viewers firmly maintain that the advertisements are just as good as the actual shows themselves! It seems as though that was especially true back in the 1950s. And if you just can’t get enough of those old commercials, you can enjoy some of them on DVD or online. ~ Ben Anton, 2008


Is there really a magic formula for investing

One question almost every investor asks at some point is whether it is possible to achieve above market returns by selecting a diversified group of stocks according to some formula, rather than having to evaluate each stock from every angle. There are obvious advantages to such a formulaic approach. For the individual, the amount of time and effort spent caring for his investments would be reduced, leaving more time for him to spend on more enjoyable and fulfilling tasks. For the institution, large sums of money could be deployed without having to rely upon the investing acumen of a single talented stock picker. Many of the proposed systems also offer the advantage of matching the inflow of investable funds with investment opportunities. An investor who follows no formula, and evaluates each stock from every angle, may often find himself holding cash. Historically, this has been a problem for some excellent stock pickers. So, there are real advantages to favoring a formulaic approach to investing if such an approach would yield returns similar to the returns a complete stock by stock analysis would yield. Many investment writers have proposed at least one such formulaic approach during their lifetime. The most promising formulaic approaches have been articulated by three men: Benjamin Graham, David Dreman, and Joel Greenblatt. As each of these approaches appeals to logic and common sense, they are not unique to these three men. But, these are the three names with which these approaches are usually most closely associated; so, there is little need to draw upon sources beyond theirs. Benjamin Graham wrote three books of consequence: “Security Analysis”, “The Intelligent Investor”, and “The Interpretation of Financial Statements”. Within each book, he hints at various workable approaches both in stocks and bonds; however, he is most explicit in his best known work, “The Intelligent Investor”. There, Graham discusses the purchase of shares for less than two – thirds of their net current asset value. The belief that this method would yield above market returns is supported on both empirical and logical grounds. In fact, it currently enjoys far too much support to be practicable. Public companies rarely trade below their net current asset values. This is unlikely to change in the future. Buyout firms, unconventional money managers, and vulture investors now check such excessive bouts of public pessimism by taking large or controlling stakes in troubled companies. As a result, the investing public is less likely to indulge its pessimism as feverishly as it once did; for, many cheap stocks now have the silver lining of being takeover targets. As Graham’s net current asset value method is neither workable at present, nor is likely to prove workable in the future, we must set it aside. David Dreman is known as a contrarian investor. In his case, it is an appropriate label, because of his keen interest in behavioral finance. However, in most cases the line separating the value investor from the contrarian investor is fuzzy at best. Dreman’s contrarian investing strategies are derived from three measures: price to earnings, price to cash flow, and price to book value. Of these measures, the price to earnings ratio is by far the most conspicuous. It is quoted nearly everywhere the share price is quoted. When inverted, the price to earnings ratio becomes the earnings yield. To put this another way, a stock’s earnings yield is “e” over “p”. Dreman describes the strategy of buying stocks trading at low prices relative to their earnings as the low P/E approach; but, he could have just as easily called it the high earnings yield approach. Whatever you call it, this approach has proved effective in the past. A diversified group of low P/E stocks has usually outperformed both a diversified group of high P/E stocks and the market as a whole. This fact suggests that investors have a very hard time quantifying the future prospects of most public companies. While they may be able to make correct qualitative comparisons between businesses, they have trouble assigning a price to these qualitative differences. This does not come as a surprise to anyone with much knowledge of human judgment (and misjudgment). I am sure there is some technical term for this deficiency, but I know it only as “checklist syndrome”. Within any mental model, one must both describe the variables and assign weights to these variables. Humans tend to have little difficulty describing the variables – that is, creating the checklist. However, they rarely have any clue as to the weight that ought to be given to each variable. This is why you will sometimes hear analysts say something like: the factor that tipped the balance in favor of online sales this holiday season was high gas prices (yes, this is an actual paraphrase; but, I won’t attribute it, because publicly attaching such an inane argument to anyone’s name is just cruel). It is true that avoiding paying high prices at the pump is a possible motivating factor in a shopper’s decision to make online Christmas purchases. However, it is an immaterial factor. It is a mere pebble on the scales. This is the same kind of thinking that places far too much value on a stock’s future earnings growth and far too little value on a stock’s current earnings. The other two contrarian methods: the low price to cash flow approach and the low price to book value approach work for the same reasons. They exploit the natural human tendency to see a false equality in the factors, and to run down a checklist. For instance, a stock that has a triple digit price to cash flow ratio, but is in all other respects an extraordinary business, will be judged favorably by a checklist approach. However, if great weight is assigned to present cash flows relative to the stock price, the stock will be judged unfavorably. This also illustrates the second strength of the three contrarian methods. They heavily weight the known factors. Of course, they do not heavily weight all known factors. They only consider three easily quantifiable known factors. An excellent brand, a growing industry, a superb management team, etc. may also be known factors. However, they are not precisely quantifiable. I would argue that while these factors may not be quantifiable they are calculable; that is to say, while no exact value may be assigned to them, they are useful data that ought to be considered when evaluating an investment. There is the possibility of a middle ground here. These three contrarian methods may be used as a screen. Then, the investor may apply his own active judgment to winnow the qualifying stocks down to a final portfolio. Personally, I do not believe this is an acceptable compromise. These three methods do not adequately model the diversity of great investments. Therefore, they must either exclude some of the best stocks or include too many of the worst stocks. It is wise to place great weight upon each of these measures; however, it is foolish disqualify any stock because of a single criterion (which is exactly what such a screen does). Finally, there is Joel Greenblatt’s “magic formula”. This is the most interesting formulaic approach to investing, both because it does not subject stocks to any true/false tests and because it is a composite of the two most important readily quantifiable measures a stock has: earnings yield and return on capital. As you will recall, earnings yield is simply the inverse of the P/E ratio; so, a stock with a high earnings yield is simply a low P/E stock. Return on capital may be thought of as the number of pennies earned for each dollar invested in the business. The exact formula that Greenblatt uses is described in “The Little Book That Beats the Market”. However, the formula used is rather unimportant. Over large groups of stocks (which is what Greenblatt suggests the magic formula be used on) any differences between the various return on capital formulae will not have much affect on the performance of the portfolios constructed. Greenblatt claims his magic formula may be used in two different ways: as an automated portfolio generation tool or as a screen. For an investor like you (that is, one with sufficient curiosity and commitment to frequent a site such as this) the latter use is the more appropriate one. The magic formula will serve you well as a screen. I would argue, however, that you needn’t limit yourself to stocks screened by the magic formula, if you have full confidence in your judgment regarding some other stock. These four formulaic approaches (the three from Dreman and the one from Greenblatt) will likely yield returns greater than or equal to the returns you would obtain from an index fund. Therefore, you would do better to invest in your own basket of qualifying stocks than in the prefabricated market basket. If you want to be a passive investor, or believe yourself incapable of being an active investor, these formulaic approaches are your best bet. In fact, if I were approached by an institution making long – term investments and using only a very small percentage of the fund for operating expenses, I would recommend an automated process derived from these four approaches. I would also recommend that 100% of the fund’s investable assets be put into equities, but that is a discussion for another day (in fact, it’s a discussion for Tuesday; my next podcast is devoted to the dangers of diversification). If, however, you believe you have what it takes to be an active investor, and that is truly what you wish to be, then, I would suggest you do not use these approaches for anything more than helping you generate some useful ideas. If you choose this path, you need to be clear about what being an active investor entails. Read this next part very carefully (it is correct even though it may not appear to be): I have never found a screen that generates more than one buy order per hundred stocks returned. Even after I have narrowed the list of possible stocks down by a cursory review of the industry and the business itself, I have never found a method that can consistently generate more than one buy order per twenty – five annual reports read. Here, I am citing my best past experiences. In my experience, most screens result in less than one buy order per three hundred stocks returned, and I usually read more like fifty to a hundred annual reports per buy order at a minimum. You may choose to invest in far more stocks than I do. Perhaps instead of limiting yourself to your five to twelve best ideas as I do, you might want to put money into your best twenty – five to thirty ideas. Do the math, and you’ll see that is still quite a bit of homework. That’s why remaining a passive investor is the best bet for most people. The time and effort demanded of the active investor is simply too taxing. They have more important, more enjoyable things to do. If that’s true for you, the four formulaic approaches outlined above should guide you to above market returns.


Saturday, October 1, 2016

Golda s stories of the holocaust

The True Stories of a Holocaust Survivor who Survived Six Years in the Concentration Camps. Golda Sandman was born in the small city of Strachovitsa in south Poland. At the beginning of World War II she was a girl age eighteen. After the occupation by the Germans she was sent from the ghetto to a work camp in the city. Later she was sent to Auschwitz Birkenau and from there to Bergen-Belzen. She spent totally six years in concentration camps. After the war ended she went to Sweden, and from there immigrated to the Land of Israel in illegal immigrants' ship. After hard years of absorption she established a family. Golda's Stories has a plot which sounds unbelievable. She decided not to surrender to evil and survived under the harshest terms. She dealt with illegal commerce and smuggling, endangered her life many times to save people, and acted intuitively opposite death many times. Her physical and mental sufferings were unprecedented. She survived the death camps barely alive and gained her health again. She triumphed to bestow her memoirs to the next generations, in memory of the heroism of the Jews that perished in the holocaust. The book defines new borders of humanity, femininity and heroism, which reach in it heights that were considered impossible up to here. Although it's a personal memory, the book can serve as an accurate, comprehensive presentation of the whole era, because the stories extend from the 1930th to the 1950th. The son of Golda, Avinoam, recorded her memoirs in 1978, during several months in which she told him every day one story or two. Although very plain, the stories were incomprehensible in their intensity. Over the years he tried strenuously to reach a perspective which will enable him to edit and publish them. Avinoam described his spiritual journey in his book: The Little Prince Lands. Golda's Stories is written as his mother told, in first body. From reading the book, it seems at times that the flow of the stories is easy. A mother tells her child some stories. The content cancels the easy impression. This is just as in fairy tales, where the naпve style is confronted with the amazing plot and we are forced to think of a meaning above and behind the simple story. Some chapters are available for reading in the Internet.


Type one diabetes

Type one diabetes is far less common than type two diabetes and it will affect younger individuals. It is most found in people under the age of 40 and mostly under the age of fourteen. There are people who have been diagnosed with it after forty but it is very rare. Diabetes is a serious issues and type one is the worst. It is associated with the lack of insulin. It is a dysfunction of the pancreas where it will just stop making insulin in the amount the body needs to maintain a normal level of glucose in the blood. Many people who have type one diabetes will have symptoms of hyperglycemia. Hyperglycemia is where your glucose is too high in the blood. Meaning your blood sugar is too high. The common symptoms of hyperglycemia or diabetes type one is frequent hunger, frequent urinating, and frequent thirst. You will also experience blurred vision, fatigue, weight loss, your healing power will be low (meaning it will take you a long time to heal a wound or cut), dry mouth, dry or itchy skin, and you could have impotence for males. Your immune system will become weak and you will be able to pick up infection easily. The reason why you are always hungry is because your body can not use glucose as an energy source. It is also, why you tire out easily. Since the body can not absorb sugar or glucose into the blood cells you will release it through frequent trips to the bathroom. Since you make many trips a day to the bathroom, your body realizes that it is losing excess water and that’s why you will become thirsty. When it comes to the symptoms, you may experience them all together or it may take some time for your body to go through the process. Most likely though it will be gradual. The changes of developing type one diabetes is 3.7 to 20 per 100, 000. Over 700,000 Americans have type one diabetes, which adds up to be about ten percent of the total population that has the disorder. It is more common to have type two diabetes. The reason why people develop the disorder is because an autoimmune disorder. The body will start to see it’s own tissue as a foreign object and then it destroys the body’s ability to make insulin. It has been rumored to be a cause from the mumps, rubella, measles, influenza, polio, or other viruses. That’s why it is very common in young children because those epidemics affect younger children more often than older adults. Diabetes is also genetic. You may simply have the disorder because an immediate family member has it. As for treatment, type one involves injections of insulin. It is absorbed in the blood stream and absorbed by the cells that need insulin and it will then control the levels of sugar in the blood. You can find more information on all-about-diabetes-symptom/


Butea superba works normal male well most erectile dysfunction male

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Let s take a look back in time to see how the computer has evolved

In many ways, man has been using computers for millennia: an abacus is, after all, simply a very basic form of computer. The first mechanical calculator (the ‘calculating clock’) was built in the 17th century. Programming with punch-cards has been around for about 200 years now. It was in the 1940s, however, that the first electronic, digital computers started to appear – that is, computers as we know them today. These computers were massive machines, filling a large room (in some cases, a whole building) and yet having less computing power than a simple calculator does today. Reprogramming them often required extensive amounts of physical rewiring, as the only way the computer knew what to do was by how it was connected together. Still, these computers were helpful in the war effort – most famously, the British code-breaking computers at Bletchley Park that broke the Germans’ code is widely thought to have shortened the war by years. Fast forward to the ‘60s. This was when wires and tubes were replaced with the transistor – an overnight leap forward in technology that reduced computers’ size to an amazing degree, replacing the hefty vacuum tubes that somewhat like those still used in CRT TVs and microwavesbined with the invention of semiconductor integration circuits, by the ‘70s, it was possible to make personal computers small enough for people to have in their homes. This is generally regarded as being the beginning of the ‘computer age’, as the popularity of home computers quickly drove prices down and made them very affordableputer companies sprung up left, right and centre, hoping to carve themselves a piece of this exploding market. The result was chaos and buyer confusion, and few of them survive today. However, the stage was set for a huge computer battle that led to the machines we know and love today.


Medical tests. info

If you have teenage children, or young friends, or vulnerable partners, you may worry about them being exposed to illicit drug taking. Drug testing serves two purposes: it allows interested and legally allowed parties to perform tests on certain people who might have used drug of abuse, and it allows those under suspicion to clear their names. Alcohol tests Whether we like it, or not, alcohol is part of human lives. There are many false statements about the benefits, or otherwise of alcohol in many countries and societies. Monitoring devices Time has become one of the more precious commodities in modern world. We want to use this time conveniently and comfortably, and if possible, in the relaxed surroundings of our homes. Forensic tests The Forensic testing devices uses the most advanced methods for analyzing specimens. DNA Identification, Explosives Detection, or Surface Drug Test Kits will be helpful for all your forensic needs. Ovulation tests There is a hormone called LH (Luteinizing hormone), which is always present in the body in small quantity but surges around the middle of the menstrual cycle when it is released by the pituary gland in a bigger quantity than at any other time in the menstrual cycle.